by Don Hart

Joe’s medical evacuation threw a wrench into all the plotting and scheming in Survivor Tocantins, Episode 8. However, an added extra for us viewers is that we got to see a lot more of the interpersonal dynamics than we ordinarily would not have seen. Since the alliances have become complicated, the extra time was well appreciated. Here is the lineup before the three days to Episode 9, when additional plotting and scheming threaten to shake up the following alliances even more:

The Current Alliances

Old Timbira 6 – Coach, Tyson, Debbie, *Errin, Brendan, Sierra

“Secret Alliance” – Brendan, Sierra, JT, Stephen, Taj

“Warrior Alliance” – Coach, Tyson, JT, Stephen, Debbie

Old Jalapao – JT, Stephen, Taj

Timbira 4 – Coach, Tyson, Debbie, Errin

Timbira 2 – Brendan, Sierra

*Without her connection with Joe, Errin is unlikely to defect to Jalapao.

“Oh What a Tangled Web They Weave When Survivors Have Lots of Time to Deceive”

Sir Walter Scott would be proud of the remaining nine Survivors. However, it is to Euclid and basic mathematics where one has to turn to see which alliance has the advantage. One assumption that has to be made is that the Old Timbira 6 has split into two parts, divided between Brendan/Sierra and the four who want to evict Brendan/Sierra. JT certainly was the player of the week when he aided and abetted this split.

The Old Timbira 6 has apparently abandoned their 6-3 advantage over the Old Jalapao. Blame that on the power struggle between Coach and Brendan. Timbira could have ousted the remaining three Jalapao, but Coach evidently could not wait to abandon his old tribe. Timbira’s tribal loyalty faded quickly. The two tribes hadn’t even filed into the merge feast area before Coach was literally reaching out to JT.

If the Old Timbira 6 is Indeed Dead, Stephen and JT Seem to Have the Power

Now we can see why Stephen and JT’s friendship was showcased so early in the game. Stephen, because of his empathy towards Taj, became a member of the Secret Alliance. JT’s strength and will-to-win so impressed Coach that JT became the first member of Coach’s Warrior Alliance. The Timbira 6 have only themselves to blame for Stephen and JT’s power positioning in both the Secret and the Warrior Alliances. Timbira fumbled its numbers advantage. From what we were shown in Episode 8, however, Stephen and JT were headed the wrong way. With Taj they have an alliance of three, looking at a Timbira 4 and a Timbira 2. Their next best move should be to stay true to the Old Jalapao, ally with The Timbira 2 in the Secret Alliance, eliminate the Timbira 4 and then ax the Timbira 2.

However, it certainly didn’t appear in Episode 8 that this was the way they were headed. If they were to ally with the Timbira 4 and eliminate the Timbira 2, their resulting Old Jalapao alliance of 3 would be at a disadvantage to the Old Timbira 4.

Best Bets for the other alliances:

For the Warrior Alliance, their task is to eliminate the other 4: Brendan, Sierra, Taj and Errin. They must be careful never to fall behind in numbers to the Old Jalapao 3, which means they can get rid of Brendan and Sierra, but before they evict Errin, they better oust Taj.

For the Timbira 4, they have to continue to break up the Secret Alliance of 5, assuming they know it exists. They should continue on their current path against Brendan and Sierra.

For the Timbira 2, even though Brendan has the hidden immunity idol, they only have two in the alliance. They should start sowing some seeds of discord in the other alliances. They have to let the Sleeper Cell Secret Alliance emerge or they face elimination, an elimination from which Joe may have saved them in Episode 8. Later, they have got to tear someone away from the other alliances. How about wild card Errin for a start?

Other Episode 8 Observations

1. The addition of an intertribal Exile and a lack of tribal mixes before the Merge have made the pre-Merge game more predictable, the post-Merge game more interesting (so far).
2. Taj proved her value to her alliance with JT and Stephen by giving them ammunition about Timbira’s weaknesses.
3. In cementing the formation of the Warrior alliance, it was Tyson, not Coach, who approached Stephen and Debbie,
suggesting that Tyson has better social skills than Coach.
4. Sierra at the merge feast voiced Timbira’s “shock” at Jalapao’s “last few votes”. That was too much information in front of everybody, Sierra. If it was shocking that Spencer and Sydney were voted out, then what does that say about the continued presence of Stephen and Taj?
5. In a Stephen confessional, he noted to the camera that Brendan was targeting JT. It is not at all surprising that JT would be a target, and that this would be problematic for the continuation of the Secret Alliance.
6. In a Tyson confessional, he talked about Brendan’s successful entrepreneurial ventures. Brendan, like Taj, evidently didn’t hide his background well enough.
7. It was JT who suggested the split vote between Brendan and Sierra when he told Stephen that he feared Timbira was targeting him. JT stepped up to the plate numerous times this episode. He and Tyson both have physical abilities and game strategy smarts.
8. We saw Coach back rubbing Debbie, Errin and Tyson in that order, but not Brendan and Sierra.

Memorable Quotes

1. JT (showing some surprising strategy): “I hope there’s a power struggle going on in the old Timbira. I can exploit that.”
Stephen: “There’s a lot of power mix to play that is very easy to exploit.” (He and JT were definitely on the same page.)
2. Taj before digging into the Feast: “I get excited with anything that starts with an F”. (All double entendres intentionally left unedited)
3. Coach: “The dragon slayer has to wait another day to taste blood.” (Coach constantly vying for airtime).
4. Tyson: “Sierra gives hope to all the stupid people all over the world.” (Tyson also constantly vying for airtime)
5. Taj: “I’m going to give him (Jeff) applause because he doesn’t have an umbrella.” It would very un-Survivor-like to see Jeff carrying an umbrella.
6. Joe: “I’d rather walk home.” (As he’s being flown out in a helicopter).
7. Stephen to JT on all the alliances: “What a mess!”

For feedback, email me at cosohub@ix.netcom.com