by Don Hart

In this Survivor, there isn’t even a hint of a tribal reshuffling before merge time. Exile Dune seems to be the Tocantins’ way of mixing up the tribes. Just like a tribal mix-up, the new intertribal element of Exile Dune has changed the game.

Those sent to Exile have a long time (it looks like close to 2 days) to bond with the enemy, and this could make them very dangerous to keep around into the merger. The best strategy may be to limit those on your tribe who can bond with the enemy tribe on Exile. Jalapao seems to have found that strategy. Only Taj from Jalapao has spent time on Exile, and if she seems untrustworthy, she can be disposed of.

If there is indeed no tribal mix-up before merge time (the best bet is that the merger will occur at 10 left) the tribes now have a choice at the next Tribal Council: either get rid of the weakest (the women) or the most disloyal (like the Exile traitors). We heard Stephen say something similar in a confessional.

Let’s assume there are two more tribal councils before the merger. With the teams now even, Jalapao has an advantage: four males, two females to Timbira’s three males, three females. The tribes should be concentrating on winning both the next two challenges. If one of the tribes wins both, it goes into the merge up 6 to 4. The loser of the first challenge, therefore, has an incentive to get rid of its most physically weak link left on the tribe because they have to be at their strongest physically for that last pre-merge immunity challenge. The women on both tribes, therefore, are at a distinct disadvantage. The Tocantins’ pre-merge tribal councils have not changed all that much, in that there is still a Darwinian incentive to get rid of the physically weak.

Vulnerable Pre-merge Boots

Timbira: Errin (no alliances, 2nd weakest female), Sierra (weakest female, has hung out with Taj) & Brendan (has had the chance to ally with Taj twice).
Jalapao: Taj (2nd weakest female, prone to emotional outbursts, outed as wealthy, hung out with Brendan) & Sydney (weakest female, loyalty suspect).

The 4-Way Secret Alliance: Doomed to Failure?

Taj and Brendan, ironically the two least in need of winning $1 million, have the hidden immunity idol advantage, but also have the disadvantage of having had very un-secret time to plot with a member of the opposing tribe. What makes their “secret” alliance unwieldy is that they have pulled in Stephen and Sierra, who have never even spoken to each other.

Episode 4 ended with a preview in Episode 5 of the “secret” alliance’s faulty structure. Brendan has so many secrets that it is no wonder Tyson will somehow figure out Brendan’s plotting. Taj’s vulnerabilities, meanwhile, just keep multiplying. She’s the 2nd weakest physically in her tribe, doesn’t need the money (and everyone knows it), has had six days to fraternize with the enemy, threw a vote towards Joe out of nowhere, criticized Sydney’s flirting and now is going to throw a fit in Episode 5. She better find that hidden immunity idol quickly!

In Episode 4’s Tribal Council Jerry and Errin considered Brendan as the Timbira leader. Coach did not like hearing that. Coach, with Tyson and Debbie safely in his pockets, rules the tribe, like Big Brother 8’s Dick Donato, by intimidation, and his autocracy is succeeding. He is currently out of danger despite his outrageously self-absorbed and self-centered behavior.

The Next Tribal Council Could Be a Good One

On both tribes, the hidden immunity idol could come into play. We have seen previews of both Brendan and Taj in trouble. Timbira could have an especially interesting eviction choice of either the physically weak, Sierra and Errin, or a strong, yet disloyal Brendan. If Tyson can figure out that Sierra is also plotting with the enemy, Sierra could be the ideal candidate for Timbira to vote out, as she is both weaker and disloyal. For Jalapao, Taj looks like the next bootee. She just has
too much going against her, except for that idol. If there ever were a better blindside candidate……..

Improvement of the week: Debbie. She looked good struggling with all that weight in the reward challenge, and from the previews, if we hadn’t guessed already, she is solidly in the Coach-Tyson alliance.

Slippage of the week: Brendan and Taj: There are serious problems with that Secret Alliance.

Quote of the week (Sandy): “I was like the mother hen over all these little ducks.” OK…does that mean that birds of a different feather flock together? I think we’ll miss Sandy!

Please e-mail me your feedback at cosohub@ix.netcom.com