by Don Hart

Episode 11 provided one of the biggest surprises this season: Ken falling for Corinne’s false idol story. Ken could also have simply let Corinne and Bob vote for Matty without “messing up his game” with his Matty vote. So, why did he have to vote for Matty? It was Ken’s game to lose. Now he looks as if he has sown seeds of distrust in his alliance. In an outtake from an earlier show, Sugar admitted that she wouldn’t mind coming in second to Ken. However, following his betrayal of Matty, it looks as if Sugar will criticize Ken for his scheming, as we see in Episode 12’s previews. Ken lost some of that “glue” which holds his alliance together.

The women better unite!

Sugar, Crystal and Susie do not stand a chance before the jury against any of the remaining men. If they were strategic, which none of them appears to be, they should form an alliance to eliminate all the men. Bob in particular has to go as soon as possible. The jury now has four of his allies, enough to win the game. Bob has really improved his game, both strategically and in the challenges, but the target on his back just keeps getting bigger. Similarly, Ken must go because his secret plotting has been revealed-he’ll do anything to win and can’t be trusted. And, finally, Matty should be taken out because he’s the biggest physical threat–he could win a string of immunity challenges.
Who of the Final 6 now has the best shot at winning?

Assuming that the men would do better before the jury, Bob stands out as the most vulnerable to being voted out of the game next. He’s a slam dunk to win the game if he makes to the Finals. But I doubt he’ll make the Finals unless he wins every remaining immunity challenge. A major weakness of Bob, as we learn from Corinne’s post-eviction interview, is that he agonizes over the backstabbing that Survivor so often requires. For instance, next week’s previews show Bob offering Ken the immunity idol. He must really be desperate!

Despite his Episode 11 missteps, Ken still has the advantage over Matty if they both were to make it to the Finals. Corinne left the game praising Ken, and she should be influential with her Kota pals. Ken would also fare better than Matty in front of the Kota-packed jury, because they will be impressed by his strategic play, especially when he was a Fang.

Final week predictions and possibilities:

An alliance of the three women players could rule the game: Sugar, Crystal and Susie should unite to make it to the Finals. My guess is that this will not happen, but if it does, Susie would win.
However, if the women let one of the men make it to the Finals, he will win the jury votes. Due to his popularity with the jury, Bob wins Survivor Gabon if he makes the Finals. However, if Bob can’t overcome the considerable obstacles in his path, Ken has the next best shot if he can keep Crystal and Susie as allies. And, finally, Matty would win the jury votes over any of the women, but only if his physical prowess in the challenges allows him to make it to the Finals. My best guess for the winner: Ken.

P.S. Corinne’s Monday Morning Quarterbacking

Corinne revealed in her post-eviction interview that she and Bob would have preferred Sugar and not Paloma to be the first eviction from the original Kota tribe. She liked “smart” Paloma but thought it was too early to rock the boat by evicting Sugar and not Paloma. As it turned out, making Paloma an outer-layer Onion ally could have been an excellent move early in the game.

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