By Don Hart

I can’t remember a Survivor episode with more revelations and developments as Survivor Gabon Episode 4. The show’s producers for the first time combined a tribal ranking with a tribal switch. Jeff Probst credits Survivor staff member Dan Munday with the ranking addition. Jacque’s post-eviction interviews and Jeff Probst’s new episode blog provide valuable extra information into what we didn’t see on the show as well as game strategy illuminations we may have missed.

The Tribal Switch: Best & Worst Player Strategy:

Since in past Survivors original tribal loyalties have always seemed to remain dominant, one ideal result for a player is to end up on a new physically weak team with a majority of one’s original tribe, but also with enough of the opposing tribes’ players who can be voted out. If a player is in the majority of the new tribe, a weak physical team actually is a plus rather than a minus. If you’re in the majority you want to lose and vote out the other tribe’s strongest. Conversely, if the other new tribe loses, when your old friends are a minority, you lose your old friends. The more a new team majority loses and votes out the minority from the other original tribe, the stronger that majority is going to end up when the merge comes.

The best and worst decisions made in picking the new tribes:

Best: Ken’s pick of Kelly, rather than Bob or Sugar. Ken correctly saw that Kelly might be an outcast and ready to abandon her Kota loyalties.

Worst: There were many bad choices, but among those which turned out badly were:

1. Ace’s pick of Crystal rather than Jacque, Corinne, Bob or ally Sugar. A key mistake.
2. Jacque’s pick of GC rather than Corinne or Bob. Another key mistake!
3. Dan’s pick of Charlie. Dan continued to play a weak game when he kept Marcus & Charlie together.
4. Randy’s pick of Corinne rather than GC, Ken and his ally Susie. He let Corinne stay with Marcus and Charlie and put himself in jeopardy.

Jeff Probst’s comment about Ken’s “most surprising pick of the game so far” was actually misleading. Probst blogged that “Ken’s choice of Kelly was “wise”, because Kelly was “a lost puppy in need of a home”. Ken therefore showed more strategic thinking when he picked Kelly than Jeff on the show realized.

The Alliances:

Jeff Probst blogs that there are “alliances galore” in Gabon, and indeed he is absolutely correct. The alliances include:

Those who ended up in a good position after the switch:

1 The New Fang: Ken/Crystal/GC/ and Kota outcast Kelly.
2. The New Kota: Marcus/Charlie/Corinne/Bob

And those who ended up in a bad position:

3. Ace, Sugar/Jacque/Matty: This was the alliance that was not at all clear on the show but revealed by Jacque in her post-eviction interviews. Jacque was described in Jeff’s blog as “all about winning”, and her playing all sides might have been a factor in her downfall. Kelly therefore correctly told Ken that Jacque was close to Ace and Sugar. Jacque said in one interview that she wanted to take Ace and Sugar to the endgame, in another interview that she would have returned to her onion alliance with Marcus, Charlie and Corinne. Who knows what she would have done had she survived? She also said she was rooting for Marcus, Charlie and Sugar to win. Go figure! Since Jacque claimed that Sugar told her that Sugar had the immunity idol, it looks as if we were completely left out of a Jacque-Sugar friendship. Jacque also interviewed that Matty found himself separated from his former allies Dan, Randy & Susie and evidently developed a newfound friendship with Ace and Jacque. This explains Matty’s push to evict Kelly. Matty must have realized he had to join the majority of Crystal (who Jacque said was running the show), Ken, GC and Kelly in voting out Jacque.

4. Dan/Randy/Susie/Matty: Dan, Randy & Susie are a minority in the new Kota, but as long as Kota can keep winning, their positions are safe. It is unclear where Matty’s loyalties now really lie, while Randy correctly saw that he had to perform well in the challenge and he rose to the occasion.

The New Fang’s Tribal Council:

When watching the show, I thought Ace was the wisest choice for eviction, but given Jacque’s hidden friendship with Ace and Sugar, voting out Jacque was really a pretty good decision. Kudos go to Ken and Crystal on leading their alliance strategically. Kudos also go to Ace in keeping a low profile in his new weak tribal position. It was surprising that Ken and Crystal never ever considered Ace as an eviction candidate. The choice should have been between Ace and Jacque, not Jacque and Kelly.

Jeff Probst is Starting to Talk Too Much:

Both on the show and now on his first blog, Jeff is talking more and more. On the show, he seems to be making many too many comments that could affect the game. His positive remarks about Bob during the switch and negative comments about Kelly’s challenge performance stick out as unfair. Several blog comments of his are especially troubling:

1. Jeff says of Jacque: “Why is it the attractive blonde women on the show are often the least interesting?” He further comments that Jacque may not speak to him at the reunion, and she probably won’t. As an aside here, I wonder why the producers have to pick (or recruit) models and/or wannabe actors, usually in their 20s, rather than more interesting characters such as Randy. The producers evidently think that “eye-candy” players are going to improve the show’s ratings. They might try, however, picking more players with interesting personalities and mix up the age groups more. Just once why not try an older group?

2. Jeff says of Matty: “Matty plays this game too honestly to have much of a shot at winning.” And of Bob: “Stupid people are underestimating Bob.” We really didn’t need to know that Bob’s prospects of winning are good, Matty’s bad.

Finally, the producers should be complimented on the ranking/switch this early in the season. Keep the switches coming! It makes for a much more interesting show.

Please give me feedback at cosohub@ix.netcom.com