TO WIN “THE MOLE”: IT’S ALL ABOUT THE QUIZZES
(Why Probabilities Matter and Personality Doesn’t)
by Don Hart

“The Mole” is back, and we who remember the two seasons hosted by Anderson Cooper are very happy, because this 2008 edition looks about as good as the original.

The most important element of the game is the ending quiz. No matter what has happened on the episode, those who score well on the quiz win the right to continue in the game and not be “executed”. Consequently, unlike in “Survivor” or “Big Brother”, the players do not vote each other out. Thus, except for earning an exemption, every remaining player is equal in taking the quiz. There is no personality contest.

To do well on the quiz, it would be ideal to know the Mole’s identity. However, guessing can be quite dangerous. Therefore, if a player isn’t certain of the Mole’s identity, the best way to answer the questions is to choose an answer with the highest probability of being correct.

For example, consider the following questions from the first episode:

Question 9: “At the start of the ‘Crusoe’ mission was the Mole wearing a hat?”

Only Clay, Liz and Paul were wearing a hat. The odds say that the best answer is “No”.

Question 4: “On the first night, where was the Mole assigned to sleep (Inside or Outside)?”

Since 8 were assigned inside, 4 outside, the odds say the best answer is “Inside”.

Question 5: “As it is written on the Mole’s bag, does the Mole have an Even or Odd number of letters in their (sic) name?”

The best answer would be “Even”, since there were seven players with even letters: 4 letters (Alex, Clay, Mark, and Paul), 6 letters (Marcie, and Nicole) and 8 letters (Victoria).

Question 3: “During the ‘Crusoe’ mission, which group was the Mole assigned to (Scavenger, Timer, Appraiser or Whiner)?”

Since six players were scavengers, the best answer is “Scavenger”.

Question 7: “In ‘Over the Falls’, what was the outcome of the Mole’s jump? (Grabbed bag with money, Grabbed bag without money, Tried but did not grab a bag, & Did not go over the falls)?”
Since five tried but did not grab a bag, the odds favor that as the best answer.

Scoring well on the quizzes is of paramount importance in “The Mole” game. Marcie was the worst in test taking, and, consequently, she was executed. To win, players must concentrate their efforts on applying simple probabilities to the questions. It is probably better not to have any emotional factors interfering with a player’s judgment. Interestingly then, Nicole, who has largely detached herself from the group, may be least liked, but also most likely to succeed. Nicole stumbled into an exemption, and, she may have also fallen into a winning strategy.

We’ll see.